Let me depart today from my usual economics column to discuss the 2025 elections, which turned out to be a lot better than what many people expected.
To be honest, I trooped to my polling precinct thinking that we might be doomed. Survey after survey showed that some senatorial candidates from the legitimate opposition were far from making it to the top 12.
But lo and behold, Bam Aquino made his way to the top 2 slot, garnering nearly 21 million votes, while Kiko Pangilinan made it to the top 5 slot with 15.29 million votes.
None of these results were suggested by the major polling firms. Figure 1 shows that Social Weather Stations, Pulse Asia, and the newer outfit WR Numero all suggested much lower ranks for Aquino and Pangilinan, as well as Rodante Marcoleta for that matter. Aquino’s ranks ranged from 12 to 16, while Pangilinan’s ranged from 15 to 19.
Oddly, it was Publicus Asia (whose credibility was questioned repeatedly by statisticians in the past, because of its overreliance on “purposive sampling”) that got closest to the actual results.
Figure 1
Why these results? At this point everyone is turning into a political analyst, and let me join the fray with my own musings.
First, we might have witnessed the “pink” vote of the Kakampinks or supporters of Leni Robredo’s presidential bid in 2022. They’ve been brooding for three years now, since the heartbreaking loss of Robredo versus President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Now, they seized the chance of expressing their sentiments by voting for Aquino and Pangilinan, who of course were wholeheartedly endorsed by Robredo.
Many of those Kakampinks were not yet even registered voters in 2022, but they attended the rallies, handed out posters and flyers, and posted en masse on social media. Three years later, they were eligible to vote and made themselves heard.
That brings me to the second point: demographics. Data from the Commission on Elections show that more than 60.5% of registered voters belonged to the millennials and Gen-Z. Specifically, millennials (aged 29-44) accounted for 23 million voters, while Gen Z (aged 18-28) accounted for 18.3 million voters. (See Figure 2 below.)
Figure 2
Apart from the young electorate, 2025 also saw a record-breaking turnout of 81.65%. This is crucial but odd, since midterms don’t usually interest too many voters. But 2025 is different: in 2013 turnout was just 77.31%, and 75.9% in 2019. This suggests that young voters were more than eager to cast their votes, even if we just have midterm polls.
This could partly explain why most survey outfits got their results so wrong. In my view, they’ve relied too much on the “man/woman on the street”: survey firms typically deploy teams of enumerators that knock on doors in a randomized fashion, and they’re most likely to talk to parents or household heads who happen to be in their houses.
This means that survey firms could be largely missing out on the sentiments and opinions of, say, college students in the university or young professionals in their offices. And in the runup to an election where the youth is very eager to participate in, survey firms relying on old methodologies will really get it wrong.
Rather than be defensive, survey firms should be open to an industry-wide soul-searching exercise, which means diving deep into their methodologies, honing some aspects, expunging others, and comparing notes with one another. They should do this if only to avoid a crisis of confidence in their industry, because people’s trust in surveys is fast waning. (Maybe they should do a survey on that, too.)
Another important factor is that the Kiko-Bam campaign incorporated many lessons of 2022. They prepared a lot earlier than Leni did, they focused on key messages and gut issues (Bam leaned on his push for free college tuition, Kiko leaned on food and agriculture issues), and they avoided being overtly critical of the administration.
The Marcos-Duterte feud also hogged the limelight in the past year, and this allowed Kiko-Bam to deflect the disinformation campaigns. (It’s only now that trolls are catching up and surfacing to point out, wrongly, that Duterte should be the one credited for the free tuition law, because Duterte is the one who signed it.)
It helps that Aquino and Pangilinan were already past senators, so boosting name recall was easier. The opposition also didn’t push for a full slate, and Kiko-Bam was easier to remember than 12 names.
Of course, it’s not just Kiko-Bam that won: Akbayan, the party of opposition senator Risa Hontiveros, came out on top of the party-list race — a resounding victory after losses in past elections. That means that human rights defender Chel Diokno, along with two other nominees, will get seats in the House of Representatives.
ML (Mamamayang Liberal) also secured one seat for former senator Leila de Lima, who former president Rodrigo Duterte detained for more than six years on trumped-up charges. Already, De Lima is being enlisted to help prosecute Vice President Sara Duterte in the upcoming impeachment trials. What a comeback for De Lima!
All in all, I was pleasantly surprised by the election results (we haven’t even discussed the local polls, which was a mixed bag: many celebrities and dynasties lost, but in many other places dynasties flourished — like the Marcoses in Ilocos and the Dutertes in Davao). At least, in Congress, there’s more hope now for saner discussions, especially since we need to see many reforms to fix the many ailments of our economy and society. We also have to watch out for what President Marcos will do in his last three years in office.
But with so many of the Marcos bets losing, he’s already being described as an “early lame duck” president. (Before the polls, his net satisfaction rating was already at a record low of 19 percentage points.) I think top of mind for them is resisting the unsavory, if not dangerous, prospect of a Sara Duterte presidency by 2028.
What, then, will the Marcoses do in the run-up to 2028? Will they support or even ally with the Kakampinks to thwart Sara? If so, will the Kakampinks accept this invitation in the name of strategy? If they emerge as a powerful opposition force, enjoying the backing of the administration, how will Kakampinks fight the disinformation that will surely come their way? (The last thing they want is to be used as pawns by the Marcoses to fight the Dutertes.) Lastly, how will all these be affected by the upcoming impeachment trial?
2025 is not even halfway through, but all eyes are now on 2028. – Rappler.com
JC Punongbayan, PhD is an assistant professor at the UP School of Economics and the author of False Nostalgia: The Marcos “Golden Age” Myths and How to Debunk Them. In 2024, he received The Outstanding Young Men (TOYM) Award for economics. Follow him on Instagram (@jcpunongbayan) and Usapang Econ Podcast.